Buckle Up: California Gas Prices Could Hit All-Time Highs This Summer

If you’ve noticed your wallet getting lighter at the pump lately, brace yourself—GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan just warned that this summer could deliver some of the wildest gas price swings California has ever seen.

The perfect storm is brewing, and it’s not just one problem. Two major refineries have shut down in California over the past year, forcing the state to rely heavily on imported fuel from distant sources like Texas and potentially Asia. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions with Iran have closed the Strait of Hormuz, creating global oil price uncertainty that sends crude markets into fits. The situation is so unpredictable that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have repeatedly promised deals that never materialize, causing oil prices to spike, dip, and spike again.

California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda told lawmakers this week that the state has adequate supply to meet demand for the next seven to eight weeks—but beyond that, it’s a guessing game. De Haan noted that if international fuel traders face shortages, they’ll likely prioritize California’s market because consumers here are willing to pay premium prices. That’s a silver lining for supply security, but a nightmare for drivers’budgets. The analyst also warned that even if the Iran situation resolves, California may not see relief quickly. The state’s“game has changed”with the loss of those refineries, locking it into dependence on overseas suppliers for years to come.

The Newsom administration has blamed oil companies for profiting during the crisis, but De Haan offered a different perspective: California’s own strict environmental regulations and rules—including the nation’s highest gasoline taxes, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and specific fuel blend mandates—have created a closed market with less competition and higher structural costs. Neighboring states like Texas enjoy lower prices partly because they have more refineries and simpler regulatory frameworks.

The summer ahead promises to be volatile, unpredictable, and expensive. Experts are even suggesting it could set all-time price records if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Sacramento drivers should expect the unexpected at the pump.