California Democrats' Redistricting Gamble: Does the Map Really Pay Off?

When California Democrats convinced voters to let them redraw the state’s congressional map, they were banking on turning the tables in a national chess match with Republicans. The stakes were clear: counter GOP gains in Texas by flipping up to five seats blue. But as Tuesday’s primary arrives, it’s looking like a classic case of careful planning meeting messy reality.

The problem is both simple and maddening. In the San Diego suburbs, where Republicans’old stronghold—Rep. Darrell Issa’s district—was redrawn to lean Democratic, Democrats have a golden opportunity. Except they might blow it. Issa retired, and Republican San Diego County supervisor Jim Desmond jumped in to run. So did nine Democrats. That’s not a bench—that’s a traffic jam. Under California’s top-two primary system, if the Democratic vote splinters too badly, Desmond and the only other Republican candidate, Jim O’Neill, could be the only two names on the November ballot. Democrats would be completely shut out.“After millions of dollars and a nationwide effort to redraw these districts in response to Texas, Democrats being shut out would be a nightmare,”said Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official running in the race. He’s not wrong.

The political irony cuts deep. California has been democracy’s bright spot in a redistricting war launched by President Donald Trump to help Republicans hold the House. While Virginia Democrats tried the same move and got blocked by their state Supreme Court, and while the conservative U.S. Supreme Court gutted a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, California voters actually handed Democrats the power to fight back. They suspended the independent redistricting commission and created a new map designed to flip Republican seats. It was audacious. It was democratic, technically. And now it might amount to nothing if the vote gets split six ways to Sunday.

Sacramento’s own political drama adds another layer. City council member Mai Vang is challenging 81-year-old Rep. Doris Matsui, who took the seat after her late husband died in 2005. Meanwhile, the schism between establishment Democrats and younger progressives is playing out across the state—from the Central Valley, where moderate state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains faces political science professor Randy Villegas, to San Francisco, where Scott Wiener is likely to advance against either wealthy tech entrepreneur Saikat Chakrabarti or Supervisor Connie Chan, who has Nancy Pelosi’s blessing.

Republicans aren’t idle either. In Southern California, sitting Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim were drawn into the same conservative district and are now fighting over who’s more pro-Trump. In the Sacramento suburbs, former Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the GOP to become an independent and a critic of partisan gerrymandering, is hoping his new Democratic-leaning districts can save him.

So here’s the real question: Did California Democrats spend millions to redraw the map only to trip over their own feet? Tuesday will tell us whether their carefully engineered advantage survives contact with the chaos of a primary election.