California’s political establishment is about to get a reality check. With the state’s primary election set for Tuesday, two outsider candidates are threatening to upend decades of Democratic dominance—and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the political machine that’s held firm for generations.
In the governor’s race, Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British political adviser, is making a bold play to become California’s next chief executive. He’s facing off against billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer and former state attorney general Xavier Becerra—two establishment Democrats who look primed to dominate the field. But here’s the wrinkle: Hilton is now warning of a“doomsday scenario”where both top finishers are Democrats, which would effectively lock Republicans out of the November general election entirely. He’s pleading with his chief Republican rival, county Sheriff Chad Bianco, to drop out and consolidate GOP support. Bianco isn’t budging, though, insisting that Hilton’s supporters should swing his way instead. It’s a high-stakes game of political chicken with real consequences down the ballot.
Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, reality TV personality Spencer Pratt—best known alongside his wife, Heidi Montag, from“The Hills”—is running a surprisingly competitive insurgent campaign against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. Pratt is tightly clustered in the polls with Bass and progressive City Council member Nithya Raman, with a UC Berkeley poll showing no candidate with a statistically significant advantage. Bass has stumbled through her first term, still dealing with fallout from the 2025 Palisades Fire, the most destructive in Los Angeles history. She was in Ghana as part of a presidential delegation when the flames ignited. Pratt, who lost his home in the blaze, has made recovery and city management central to his pitch. For voters like historian Vivian Escalante from Boyle Heights, the message resonates: the Democratic Party, she said, has“completely abandoned us.”
What’s driving both races is a deep sense of frustration. In California’s governor’s race, voters are seeing a crowded field of more than 50 candidates with no clear frontrunner. Democrats are promising to bring down costs and fend off the Trump administration’s clashes with the state. Republicans are pledging drastic change after two decades of Democratic statewide victories. The mail-in voting got off to a slow start—just 15% of ballots had been returned as of the Sunday before Election Day—leaving room for late momentum shifts.
Los Angeles tells a similar story of neglect. Hollywood jobs have been fleeing to cheaper filming locations. Downtown’s pandemic-era renaissance never materialized, with office buildings still desperate for tenants. Streets are cracking, sidewalks are broken, and streetlights don’t stay lit. Homelessness remains visible in encampments across the city despite Bass’s claims of progress. For a sprawling metropolis that once set the tone for the nation, these are signs of a city struggling to deliver basic services.
What happens Tuesday will reshape not just California’s leadership but signal whether the state’s Democratic lock can finally be broken. The outsiders—Hilton and Pratt—are betting that voters are ready for something different. The establishment is banking on experience and continuity. With low early mail-in return rates and no clear leader in either race, a last-minute surge could still reshuffle the entire field.
About the Author
Andrew Johnson
Andrew Johnson is a contributor to LocalBeat, covering local news and community stories.
