The California primary on June 2 delivered a masterclass in political surprise—and not all of it was what the establishment had ordered.
Political analyst Mike Luery broke down the results, and the headline was clear: the Democratic establishment had a very good night. Xavier Becerra, the former California Attorney General and Biden cabinet member, cruised past Tom Steyer in the governor’s race, despite Steyer’s staggering $215 million in personal campaign spending. Those nonstop ads? They didn’t move the needle. Meanwhile, 81-year-old Rep. Doris Matsui held off a younger challenger in the U.S. House District 7 race, proving that experience and name recognition still matter. And in Los Angeles, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass advanced to the general election runoff despite facing dismal approval ratings in the wake of the deadly 2025 wildfires.
But here’s where things got delightfully weird. Spencer Pratt—yes, that Spencer Pratt, from the reality TV days of The Hills and his marriage to Heidi Montag—qualified for the LA mayor’s race top two. His campaign videos went viral for being, in Luery’s words,“the most insane thing I’ve ever seen.”The attention was exactly what he was looking for, and it got him there.
The real shock, though, landed in the 6th Congressional District. Kevin Kiley, running as a no party preference candidate, is leading in a district that was literally drawn by Prop 50 to be a safe Democratic seat. The irony is razor-sharp: Kiley, while in Congress, actually sponsored a bill to stop the very gerrymandering that created his district. Now an unknown Republican is in second place, potentially shutting out a Democrat entirely in what was supposed to be a guaranteed Democratic pickup. If that holds, it could upend the entire House strategy for Democrats this fall.
The lieutenant governor race added another curveball. Gloria Romero, a former Democratic Senate majority leader, is running as a Republican and leading the field. Josh Fryday, another Democrat who spent $4 million of his own money, landed in third place—a brutal finish for the investment.
Voter turnout showed a late-election surge, suggesting that despite California’s size and sometimes-predictable politics, people are still paying attention. And Luery flagged one more November issue worth watching: a potential ballot measure on a billionaire’s tax, which has faced notable opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom and others.
The takeaway? Money doesn’t always win. Brand recognition matters. And sometimes the political establishment’s carefully drawn lines get redrawn by voters who have other ideas.
About the Author
Andrew Johnson
Andrew Johnson is a contributor to LocalBeat, covering local news and community stories.
