From Third Place to Runoff: How LA's Progressive Challenger Caught the Establishment Off Guard

Los Angeles just delivered one of those political plot twists that reminds us why local elections matter. Progressive city council member Nithya Raman, who was running in third place just days ago, has clawed her way into a November runoff against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass—and it completely blindsided the political establishment that’s been backing Bass all along.

Here’s the thing: this race is a lot more interesting than it might first appear. Yes, it’s two Democrats squaring off in a heavily Democratic city, but it’s really a referendum on whether Los Angeles wants to stick with establishment incrementalism or take a harder left turn to tackle the city’s ugliest problems. Bass received under 35% of the vote in the primary—a genuinely vulnerable position for any sitting mayor—while former reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, despite drawing national attention as a Republican challenger, couldn’t crack the top two. His celebrity buzz didn’t convert to votes, which tells you something about Los Angeles voters’appetite for celebrity outsiders, even ones willing to challenge liberal governance.

Raman’s late-race surge came courtesy of California’s notoriously slow vote-counting process. Early returns showed Bass leading and Pratt in second, but as election officials in Los Angeles processed mail ballots that arrived in the final days—when Democrats were disproportionately returning their ballots—both Bass and Raman gained ground. By the time the dust settled, Raman had edged out Pratt for the runoff spot. It’s a perfect example of how much the timing of vote processing can shape initial narratives versus final outcomes.

Now here’s where it gets complicated. Raman made a last-minute entry into the race after previously endorsing Bass for reelection, and she was elected to the council with support from the Democratic Socialists of America. That progressive pedigree carries real weight in LA, but her positions have been shifting. She’s softened her opposition to no-camping zones (which she voted against dozens of times on the council), and her police stance has evolved dramatically from posting“defund the police”on social media in 2020 to now saying the Los Angeles Police Department should stay at its current size of about 8,600. The police union’s taunting her as“Flip Floppin’Raman”for those shifts—fair criticism or necessary pragmatism? That’s the central tension of her candidacy.

Bass, meanwhile, has the heavy hitters: Governor Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and influential labor unions. She’s a seasoned politician who served in the state Legislature and Congress before becoming mayor in 2022, even getting serious consideration as former President Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020. But that establishment backing only got her to 35% in a race where voters clearly want change.

What makes this runoff genuinely worth watching is what it reveals about Los Angeles right now. The city’s struggling with homelessness, crumbling infrastructure, gridlock, and skyrocketing housing costs—problems that haven’t been solved by either progressive activism or establishment management. Raman promises to speed up housing construction and bring back entertainment industry jobs, and she’s blunt about Bass’s record:“LA’s primary strategy for homelessness has been to move encampments from one block to another, from your block to your neighbor’s block and back again. It’s political theater.”That indictment resonates with voters who feel forgotten, including working people frustrated that tax dollars aren’t producing results.

To win in November, Raman will need to expand beyond her progressive base in a diverse city where coalition-building matters. Democratic consultant Bill Carrick nailed it: Bass had“a good number of people who were voting against her,”while Raman’s opposition is softer—people who simply want someone different. That’s an advantage, but it’s not a guarantee. The race will test whether LA voters are ready to move left on housing and services, or whether Bass can consolidate establishment support and make the case that she deserves a second term.

Either way, the fact that this race happened—and that an incumbent mayor got under 35% of the vote—signals that Los Angeles is looking for something new. The November showdown will be one to watch.