Rusty Hicks Dodges the Becerra Question as California Primary Reaches Its Climax

The California Democratic Party’s top strategist just pulled off a masterclass in non-answers. Days before voters settle the state’s wide-open gubernatorial primary, California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks sat down with California Politics 360 host Ashley Zavala and somehow managed to avoid giving a straight response to one very simple question: Is he happy Xavier Becerra didn’t drop out of the race?

It’s a fair ask, considering the whole reason Hicks and his party spent March and April flooding the field with polling data was to encourage lower-tier candidates to reassess whether they had a real shot at making the general election. The stakes were real—with eight credible Democrats all splitting the vote, there was genuine concern that two Republicans could surge through and lock the party out entirely. But Becerra, sitting at a measly 5 percent back in March after Eric Swalwell dropped out, apparently got the memo that the game had shifted. After powerful Democratic groups coalesced around him in April, he surged to 25 percent in the latest Berkeley IGS poll released Thursday—now leading the pack heading into election day Tuesday.

So when Zavala pressed Hicks directly on whether he was glad Becerra stayed in instead of heeding the party’s implicit advice, Hicks retreated into the kind of careful verbiage that makes political junkies grind their teeth. He said the party was“always doing what was required to ensure we had a strong Democrat into the General Election”and that“I don’t think anyone could have predicted as to how this race would turn out.”Translation: We’re going to spin this as a win no matter what happens.

What’s actually interesting here isn’t Hicks’dodge—that’s basic politics. It’s what the dodge reveals about the tension within California’s Democratic establishment. The party couldn’t unite on a single candidate at its endorsing convention earlier this year, so instead of endorsing, it tried to shape the race through data and strategy. That approach only works if candidates actually listen. Most didn’t. Becerra gambled that he could thread the needle and made it work.

The real test comes Tuesday when voters actually vote. Democratic turnout has been soft so far—Hicks acknowledged voters are“clutching their ballots”and waiting to cast them strategically. He’s banking on a last-minute surge, insisting that“Democratic primary voters are going to have their voices heard”even if votes arrive later than usual. It’s a reasonable bet. California’s vote-by-mail system typically sees a flood of returns on or just before election day.

What happens after the dust settles will tell you everything about whether Hicks’strategy—and his careful non-answer about Becerra—was genius or just lucky.