The June primary is almost here, and California voters are about to make some consequential decisions about who leads the state for the next four years. But don’t mistake this for just another election cycle—the dynamics at play reveal something deeper about where California’s two parties stand right now, and what voters actually want.
On the Democratic side, things look scrambled. Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, has emerged as a frontrunner alongside Tom Steyer and several other candidates. But here’s what’s striking: Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks acknowledged earlier this year that his party was so uncertain about the race that they released internal polling to encourage some lower-tier candidates to drop out. Becerra, ironically, was one of those candidates flagged as potentially unviable—yet he stayed in the race, consolidated support, and now sits near the top. That’s either a vindication of grassroots momentum or a sign that the Democratic establishment didn’t read the room correctly.
On the Republican side, the picture is sharper. Steve Hilton, the former TV news commentator, is polling strongly at roughly 20%, and Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin isn’t hiding her confidence. She’s highlighting something Democrats are struggling to acknowledge: there’s a real enthusiasm gap between the parties right now. Republicans are turning out ballots early and voting with purpose. Democrats? Rankin argues they’re“clutching their ballots”—hesitating, uncertain, lacking excitement about their options.
What makes this primary especially notable is that it’s the first time Californians will select U.S. Representatives under newly redrawn congressional district maps. Those maps were redrawn by Democrats specifically to give their party an advantage, and voters approved them as Proposition 50. Yet even with that structural advantage, Democrats seem nervous.
Then there’s Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor positioning himself as a pragmatist willing to do one term and then step aside. His message is direct: Sacramento has created problems that have nothing to do with Donald Trump—gas prices, utility costs, housing, homelessness—and California voters know it. Villaraigosa is betting that middle-of-the-road problem-solving beats ideology, though his polling numbers suggest that’s a tough sell in a crowded field.
The stakes here go beyond just the governor’s race. California is grappling with affordability, housing, education, and public safety in ways that will define the state for years. How voters sort through this primary—and whether they show up at all—will signal what they’re actually worried about and which party they trust to handle it. Tune in to see how it plays out.
About the Author
Andrew Johnson
Andrew Johnson is a contributor to LocalBeat, covering local news and community stories.
