Just days before California heads to the polls on June 2nd, California Republican Party Chairwoman Corinne Rankin is practically giddy. And based on the early voting data, she might have reason to be.
The contrast between the two parties heading into this primary is stark. Democrats are dragging their feet — early voter turnout on the blue side has lagged compared to 2022, while Republicans are showing up with visible enthusiasm.“What you’re seeing on the Democrat side is little to no enthusiasm, and it’s quite the contrast on the Republican side,”Rankin told California Politics 360, and the numbers seem to back her up.
The governor’s race is where the GOP sees its biggest opening. Rankin is confident that a Republican will land in one of the top two spots headed to November, and frankly, it’s not hard to see why she’s feeling optimistic. The Democratic field offers little spark to energize the base. Rankin points to the fact that former Rep. Eric Swalwell was forced to drop out over scandals, leaving Attorney General Javier Becerra as the leading Democratic candidate — but at just 25% polling, hardly an inspiring position. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the party is banking on fresh faces and contrasting visions. Steve Hilton brings outsider energy (his background as a former British Prime Minister advisor positions him as something genuinely different from the usual political playbook), while Sheriff Chad Bianco taps into legitimate statewide anxiety about public safety.
But the governor’s race isn’t the only place where Republicans see opportunity. Rankin highlighted the superintendent’s race, where Republican Sonia Shaw is making noise on education issues that have frustrated parents across the state, particularly around outcomes for Black and brown students. There’s also the insurance commissioner’s race, where Republican Stacy Kors brings 38 years of industry experience to a position that desperately needs expertise. And then there’s that wild card in Los Angeles: the mayoral race where Spencer Pratt is somehow in the mix against incumbent Karen Bass, who’s polling at a dismal 25%.
None of this happens in a vacuum. A Public Policy Institute of California poll showing 57% of likely voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction provides the wind at Republican backs. When you’re running as the party of“something different,”that kind of dissatisfaction is oxygen. Democrats are feeling it too — Rankin notes they’re“holding their ballots”because there’s simply no enthusiasm for the slate of candidates on offer.
What happens on June 2nd will shape everything that follows. If Republicans punch through to the general election in stronger positions than expected, it won’t be because they ran a perfect campaign. It’ll be because California voters decided they wanted to see what something different looks like.
About the Author
Andrew Johnson
Andrew Johnson is a contributor to LocalBeat, covering local news and community stories.
