Four Days Out: California's Governor's Race Tightens as Becerra Holds Narrow Lead

With Election Day just around the corner on June 2, California’s race for governor is shaping up to be far closer than anyone initially expected. A new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies has Xavier Becerra, the Democrat and former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, clinging to a slim 25% lead—but don’t mistake that for a runaway victory. Former Fox News host Steve Hilton is breathing down his neck at 21%, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer is right there at 19%, making this a genuine three-person scramble for one of two spots heading to November.

Here’s what makes this race especially nail-biting for Sacramento area voters: California’s top-two primary system means this isn’t about party loyalty. Whoever gets the most votes—regardless of whether they’re a Democrat, Republican, or independent—advances to the general election, alongside the second-place finisher. With less than a 4-point gap between Becerra and Hilton, a shift in the final days of voting could fundamentally reshape the matchup we see in the fall.

The polling, conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies between May 19 and 24, carries a margin of error of about 2 percentage points. That’s a reminder that these numbers have real wiggle room. Meanwhile, early voting is already in full swing. According to data from Political Data, Inc., more than 2.8 million ballots have been returned statewide so far—about 12% overall turnout. Republicans are outpacing Democrats slightly in early voting (16.9% vs. 12.1% turnout), which could signal momentum heading into the final stretch.

For Sacramento County voters specifically, the expanded voting options that began this week are a game-changer. Over 70 additional four-day polling locations opened May 29, part of California’s Voter’s Choice Act, which doesn’t apply uniformly across the state. Not every county offers the same in-person voting window, so if you’re in Sacramento, you’ve got flexibility. If you’re in San Joaquin County, your options are more limited. The big deadline that matters most, though? Tuesday, June 2. That’s when votes count.

This race is far from settled. The gap between Becerra and Hilton is smaller than many anticipated, and with a week to go, messaging, turnout, and how undecided voters break could easily shift the outcome.